Report

Conclave on Poll Strategies NEW DELHI: The Congress, as a first major step towards preparing the organisation for the general elections, decided to appoint 60 senior leaders as coordinators to ensure proper coordination between the All India Congress Committee and the Pradesh Congress Committees (PCCs). After having chaired a meeting of the PCC and Congress Legislature Party leaders here on January 16, the party president, Smt. Sonia Gandhi, had a long meeting with these coordinators who are expected to reach the States allocated to them by the month-end. Their appointment would be in addition to the Central observers that the party sends ahead of elections. The move is aimed at addressing complaints about lack of coordination between the AICC-PCC in the run-up to the polls and ensure party discipline. Smt. Gandhi stressed the need to iron out differences, if any, and work together to face the challenge ahead in the form of the Lok Sabha polls. The state unit chiefs stressed that the selection of candidates should be completed as soon as possible so that the contestants get adequate time to campaign, since the period itself was restricted to 14 days. Earlier, Smt. Gandhi told correspondents that the party, which was in the process of forging pre-poll alliances of "like-minded" parties, would have a common minimum programme but said it was too early to work on it. She said present exercise was to review the work the party needed to do and the steps needed to prepare the organisation for the Lok Sabha polls. She expressed satisfaction over the inputs provided by the State leaders. On the question of alliances, Smt. Gandhi said the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam chief, Shri M.Karunanidhi, has deputed a representative who would meet here on 17 January. She indicated she could call on Shri Karunanidhi later.

Pranab Mukherjee Committee Report

The Pranab Mukherjee Committee, charged with reviewing the results of the December 2003 Assembly elections and making recommendations for the Lok Sabha elections due in 2004, presented its report to the Congress President at noon on 30 December, 2003. The Congress President spent over an hour and half with members of the Committee discussing with them their main findings and proposals.

The Committee have found that in Chhattisgarh, the Congress vote share and the number of seats won declined substantially in relation to 1998, with the worst showing being in the ST reserved seats. While, however, there was a significant erosion in the Congress vote share, the BJP vote share also declined. The main beneficiaries of the erosion in Congress support were the NCP and Independents. The BSP also took a substantial vote share. The outcome would, therefore, appear to be more a defeat of the Congress by Congress discontents than a victory for the BJP. While the performance of the government from the inception of the State in 2000 till three years later was exceptionally good, the personality and leadership style of the chief minister snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. However, the personal foibles of the CM should not blind us to the real achievements of Chhattisgarh under the Congress in the last three years, especially compared to the disastrous showing of neighbouring Jharkhand under the BJP over the same period of time. The Committee conclude that the reverses suffered are not irreversible.

In Delhi, the Committee find that the Congress vote share increased but the number of its seats fell. The elections have seen the emergence of a number of other players, most importantly the BSP, which took nearly 6% of the vote while reducing the number of the seats it contested from 58 in 1998 to only 40 seats in 2003. The NCP, JD(S), SP and Independents took between them a substantial chunk of around 8% of the vote. The Congress won on its record of good governance and people's involvement (bhagidari), backed by the excellent image of its incumbent chief minister in marked contrast to the poor image of the BJP leader. The Committee conclude that the Congress is poised to recover considerable ground in Delhi in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.

In Madhya Pradesh, the long tradition of the Congress being defeated every ten years (1967/1977/1990/ now 2003) has been maintained. Historically, though, non-Congress governments in MP have tended to have a short shelf-life. The massive fall in the Congress vote share has gone only to the extent of about one-third to the BJP, two-thirds going to the BSP, the Samajwadi Party and the Gondwana Ganatantra Parishad, in that order. Independents too, including Congress rebels, have been a major beneficiary of the drift of Congress votes. Thus, the MP outcome is less a BJP victory than a Congress defeat. The Committee have found that `Hindutva', in the person of the alternative chief minister fielded by the BJP, and the sub-terranean propaganda carried on by communal organisations associated with BJP, was the covert issue in the campaign even as the overt issue was `bijli-sadak-pani'. The MP government's failings on the infrastructure front obscured its very real achievements in rural development through people's participation. The staggering losses suffered by the party in reserved ST and SC seats reflects the poor implementation of the expectations roused by the promise of the Bhopal Dalit Agenda. Election management and the conduct of the CM-centric campaign were poor. But given the small increase in the BJP vote share, in relation to the massive increase in its seats, strategic alliances with appropriate partners and the removal of organizational and election management defeats should enable the Congress in 2004 to perform as creditably in LS 2004 as the BJP did in LS 1999 after its reverses in the state assembly elections of 1998.

In Mizoram, the Congress doubled the number of its seats but could not form the government owing to the defeat of half its sitting MLAs. Instead of a pre-poll alliance, the local Congress leadership preferred a post-poll coalition. A pre-poll alliance would have reversed the outcome. The immediate need is for a second-line, second-generation leadership to reinforce the towering presence of the veteran Congress leader in the state. If this is done, and appropriate alliance arrangements made, the prospects of electing a Congress MP from Mizoram in LS 2004 are bright.

In Rajasthan, five years of good governance were extinguished by five weeks of poor election management. The disappointing election results must not obscure the very real achievements of the state government in drought management and other economic development and social welfare issues. It is to be noted that while about half the drop in the Congress vote went in favour of the BJP, the other half went mostly to the BSP, and then to other parties and Independents. The root of the defeat lay in the "desire" system evolved by CM under which MLAs were allowed a decisive say in the postings and transfers of school teachers and government servants. This generated an anti-MLA backlash at the constituency level which translated into an anti-incumbency wave against an otherwise much-admired state government. Organizational weaknesses, indiscipline and the adverse domino effect of attempts at social engineering also contributed to the unexpected defeat. The massive seepage of the traditional solid tribal backing to the Congress is particularly worrying. But with special attention to the tribal and SC vote, appropriate strategic alliances, better discipline and team work, and honing the election machine, the Congress should be able to reap the fruits of its record of governance in LS 2004.

In its section on Recommendations for LS 2004, the Committee have called for early implementation of the Shimla Sankalp that the Congress should fight the communal and divisive forces in LS 2004 in association with other secular, progressive forces. To this end, the Committee recommended that the work of identifying potential partners and initiating talks with them be taken up "with all deliberate speed", preferably within the month of January if possible, so as to have the alliance in place well before the elections. Recognizing that the objective electoral picture, as between the Congress and its potential partners, varies from state to state, the Committee have urged that negotiations at multi-state, regional, state or sub-regional level be undertaken within the perspective of a national framework based on a national strategy with national objectives.

Very detailed recommendations have been made for gearing the AICC and PCCs into election mode and inducting professionalism into all dimensions and levels of election work. The use of national and regional satellite channels and city cable channels for election work has been highlighted. It has been proposed that candidates be announced as soon as they are chosen instead of waiting till the last minute to notify the list of candidates. Party leaders have been put on alert that they will be held accountable for candidates whose cause they champion. Special teams have been recommended to go into the set-back the party has suffered in ST/SC reserved constituencies throughout the western and central belt.

The Committee is confident that the Congress and allies are well-positioned to deliver a stinging rebuff in LS 2004 to the forces of disintegration and disaster that have made unexpected and undeserved gains in the assembly elections of December 2003.

The Committee was chaired by Shri Pranab Mukherjee, MP, Member, CWC and had as its members four MPs, Shri Mani Shankar Aiyar (LS), Prithviraj Chavan (RS), B.K. Handique (LS) and Priya Ranjan Das Munshi (LS). It began its sittings on 16 December and presented its report a fortnight later. It took evidence from 57 witnesses drawn from all the States concerned and the AICC office-bearers and observers in-charge of these states.

- Pranab K. Mukherjee, Chairman
30 December, 2003